Mon, Mar 1, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
St. Louis Blues 5, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 112 | 316 | 17 | 535 |
| ANA | 111 | 07 | 315 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:04ANAIsac LundeströmAssists: Maxime Comtois, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:03STLJordan KyrouAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Zachary Sanford · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 6:35STLDavid PerronAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 12:45STLZachary SanfordPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Justin Faulk · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 12:58STLDakota JoshuaAssists: Kyle Clifford, Marco Scandella · Tip-in, 0.19 xG4–1
- P3 0:34ANAIsac LundeströmAssists: Rickard Rakell · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 15:16ANAIsac LundeströmAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Rickard Rakell · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 18:40STLZachary SanfordENGWGAssists: Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.52 xG5–3
- P3 19:00ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Max Jones · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:46STLJordan Kyrou: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 1:29ANAJakob Silfverberg: Holding2 min
- P2 10:48ANAIsac Lundeström: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:01STLDavid Perron: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:39ANAJani Hakanpää: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:54STLOskar Sundqvist: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Schenn – Walker13:41
xG 0.90–0.49 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 1–2
- Clifford – MacEachern – Joshua7:05
xG 0.38–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Sundqvist – Blais7:58
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- O'Reilly – Sanford – Kyrou9:38
xG 0.51–0.77 (40%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Krug2:53
xG 0.34–0.10 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Scandella – Dunn13:46
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Faulk – Krug14:00
xG 0.66–0.76 (47%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Jones – Comtois3:38
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Rakell – Lundeström – Zegras4:30
xG 0.49–0.14 (77%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Rakell – Comtois – Lundeström4:25
xG 0.28–0.22 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Milano3:32
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Fowler2:31
xG 0.59–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Fowler – Hakanpää13:07
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Hutton – Larsson11:39
xG 0.34–0.81 (30%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).