Mon, Mar 1, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 2, San Jose Sharks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 113 | 011 | 235 |
| SJS | 07 | 210 | 410 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:32COLSamuel GirardAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 4:21COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 6:13SJSRadim SimekAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Rudolfs Balcers · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 16:48SJSKevin LabancAssists: Evander Kane, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 4:18SJSRudolfs BalcersGWGAssists: Dylan Gambrell, Timo Meier · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 7:53SJSErik KarlssonPPAssists: Evander Kane, Timo Meier · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 10:11SJSJohn LeonardAssists: Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–5
- P3 18:53SJSEvander KaneENAssists: Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:46SJSNikolai Knyzhov: Holding2 min
- P1 10:35COLDevon Toews: Interference2 min
- P1 14:23COLValeri Nichushkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:30SJSMario Ferraro: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:02SJSAlexander True: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:45SJSAlexander True: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:36COLMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:48COLNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:48SJSRyan Donato: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBellemare – Jost – O'Connor7:21
xG 0.50–0.17 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Donskoi – Compher – Nichushkin2:35
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Burakovsky – Compher3:20
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kadri – Saad – Burakovsky3:07
xG 0.27–0.08 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Timmins4:21
xG 0.67–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Toews – MacDonald8:22
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Toews – Renouf3:05
xG 0.07–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Kane – Labanc11:14
xG 0.66–0.18 (79%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Sorensen – Nieto – True3:18
xG 0.21–0.23 (47%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Meier – Balcers – Gambrell9:57
xG 0.26–0.34 (43%)attempts 5–11goals 2–0
- Marleau – Donato – Leonard10:18
xG 0.63–0.91 (41%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Knyzhov6:57
xG 0.77–0.34 (69%)attempts 5–8goals 3–0
- Burns – Ferraro16:12
xG 0.80–0.56 (59%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Simek2:41
xG 0.11–0.04 (73%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).