Tue, Mar 2, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 1, Montréal Canadiens 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 114 | 05 | 127 |
| MTL | 013 | 215 | 15 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:26MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Corey Perry, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P2 11:30MTLJeff PetryPPGWGAssists: Tomas Tatar, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 18:29OTTArtem ZubAssists: Drake Batherson, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 19:39MTLTyler ToffoliENAssists: Nick Suzuki, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.70 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:27MTLJoel Armia: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 9:01OTTErik Brannstrom: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:26OTTErik Gudbranson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 11:40MTLJake Evans: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Brown – Tkachuk9:00
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Dadonov – White – Tkachuk3:09
xG 0.06–0.05 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Stützle12:41
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Haley – Watson5:00
xG 0.01–0.14 (5%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Zub11:23
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Zaitsev2:23
xG 0.06–0.01 (80%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev19:32
xG 0.49–0.66 (43%)attempts 15–24goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault10:42
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Perry – Byron – Evans6:38
xG 0.04–0.05 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Drouin – Suzuki13:02
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi8:58
xG 0.15–0.22 (40%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Chiarot15:27
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Petry – Edmundson16:04
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Kulak – Romanov12:48
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).