Wed, Mar 3, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 2, Boston Bruins 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 04 | 112 | 05 | 1 | 228 |
| BOS | 02 | 07 | 19 | 01 | 0 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:19BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 6:14WSHLars EllerAssists: Richard Panik, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. BOS Jake DeBrusk stopped
- 2. WSH Jakub Vrana scored
- 3. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
- 4. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 5. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:23BOSCharlie McAvoy: Interference2 min
- P1 14:19BOSDavid Krejci: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:56WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P1 19:49WSHRichard Panik: Interference2 min
- P3 14:30WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:30BOSTrent Frederic: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Kuraly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Eller – Panik9:26
xG 0.50–0.08 (86%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary14:03
xG 0.70–0.44 (61%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway7:21
xG 0.21–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Wilson – Vrana7:56
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Orlov15:32
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Chara – Jensen14:05
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Carlson – Dillon18:11
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestDeBrusk – Frederic – Studnicka9:52
xG 0.35–0.22 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak13:37
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Krejci – Ritchie – Pastrnak2:17
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Bjork6:04
xG 0.02–0.27 (7%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Carlo13:21
xG 0.58–0.29 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Tinordi – Clifton13:40
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy2:39
xG 0.07–0.23 (24%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).