Wed, Mar 3, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Minnesota Wild 1, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 010 | 17 | 020 | 137 |
| VGK | 112 | 18 | 38 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:03VGKAlex TuchAssists: Cody Glass, Nicolas Hague · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 5:03VGKJonathan MarchessaultGWGAssists: Alex Tuch, William Karlsson · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 9:58MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Ian Cole, Carson Soucy · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–2
- P3 11:08VGKMark StoneAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 16:38VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 17:41VGKWilliam KarlssonENAssists: Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:37VGKRyan Reaves: Interference2 min
- P1 16:27VGKShea Theodore: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:57MINIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:46MINJordan Greenway: Interference2 min
- P3 8:00VGKNicolas Hague: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:59VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:59MINKevin Fiala: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov4:34
xG 0.88–0.11 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Bonino – Foligno – Mayhew3:49
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 1–1
- Bonino – Foligno – Sturm3:43
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov7:54
xG 0.42–0.43 (49%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon12:11
xG 1.32–0.81 (62%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Cole – Soucy14:53
xG 1.12–0.66 (63%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Brodin – Dumba16:39
xG 0.96–0.80 (55%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson9:36
xG 1.15–0.39 (74%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:46
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek7:58
xG 0.33–0.77 (30%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Tuch – Kolesar – Glass9:33
xG 0.26–1.22 (18%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Theodore16:27
xG 1.16–0.28 (80%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Martinez – Whitecloud9:51
xG 0.58–0.59 (50%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo2:28
xG 0.02–0.03 (34%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).