Wed, Mar 3, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
St. Louis Blues 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 16 | 17 | 18 | 321 |
| ANA | 06 | 113 | 110 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:45STLOskar SundqvistPPAssists: David Perron, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 10:02STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Torey Krug, Oskar Sundqvist · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 14:13ANAMaxime ComtoisAssists: Troy Terry, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 13:08STLZachary SanfordPPGWGAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 19:51ANARickard RakellAssists: Trevor Zegras, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:03ANAJosh Mahura: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:22STLTorey Krug: Interference2 min
- P2 9:55ANAJakob Silfverberg: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:18STLRyan O'Reilly: Holding2 min
- P3 11:29ANAJani Hakanpää: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:30STLMarco Scandella: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Lundeström
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Schenn – Walker11:51
xG 0.43–0.28 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Sundqvist – Blais9:46
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Clifford – MacEachern – Joshua6:11
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Sanford – Kyrou12:57
xG 0.38–0.59 (39%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Krug17:54
xG 0.74–0.73 (50%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola10:35
xG 0.51–0.68 (43%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Scandella – Dunn18:50
xG 0.25–0.64 (28%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Terry – Comtois11:01
xG 0.99–0.21 (82%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Milano8:19
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Rakell – Lundeström – Zegras12:54
xG 0.34–0.36 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Backes – Heinen – Steel7:59
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Hakanpää14:55
xG 0.93–0.40 (70%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Hutton – Larsson14:57
xG 0.69–0.59 (54%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Mahura18:19
xG 0.56–0.59 (49%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).