Wed, Mar 3, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 4, San Jose Sharks 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 110 | 318 | 438 |
| SJS | 09 | 07 | 010 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:24COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 5:29COLSamuel GirardAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 8:23COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
- P3 14:34COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nazem Kadri, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG4–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:51SJSKevin Labanc: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:09SJSJoachim Blichfeld: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:57COLJacob MacDonald: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:08SJSJoachim Blichfeld: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P3 12:11COLBrandon Saad: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:20COLJoonas Donskoi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:05
xG 0.38–0.14 (74%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Donskoi – Compher – Nichushkin6:35
xG 0.11–0.12 (47%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Saad – Burakovsky9:39
xG 0.45–0.54 (46%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Bellemare – Jost – O'Connor6:24
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Toews8:49
xG 0.47–0.05 (91%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Girard – MacDonald6:06
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Graves – MacDonald4:01
xG 0.30–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Blichfeld – True2:35
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Nieto – Balcers – Gambrell2:19
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Marleau – Donato – Leonard5:55
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Donato – Meier2:45
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Simek10:17
xG 0.51–0.12 (80%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Burns – Ferraro17:09
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 13–21goals 0–2
- Karlsson – Knyzhov16:33
xG 0.33–0.73 (31%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).