Tue, Feb 16, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
New Jersey Devils 5, New York Rangers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 016 | 29 | 312 | 537 |
| NYR | 09 | 216 | 014 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:37NJDPavel ZachaPPAssists: Damon Severson, Janne Kuokkanen · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 11:32NYRColin BlackwellAssists: Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 17:14NJDWill ButcherAssists: Nick Merkley, Janne Kuokkanen · Deflected, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 19:27NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Chris Kreider, Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 10:43NJDYegor SharangovichGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, Jesper Bratt · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 14:09NJDNick MerkleyAssists: Janne Kuokkanen · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 19:39NJDMikhail MaltsevENAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.61 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:29NYRChris Kreider: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:29NJDMichael McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:15NYRChris Kreider: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:37NYRMika Zibanejad: Elbowing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZacha – Merkley – Kuokkanen9:58
xG 0.86–0.38 (69%)attempts 14–6goals 2–1
- Palmieri – Maltsev – Sharangovich6:59
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Bratt – Hughes7:25
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Bratt – Maltsev – Sharangovich3:24
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Smith20:56
xG 1.86–1.21 (61%)attempts 31–22goals 1–0
- Subban – Butcher16:10
xG 0.78–0.80 (49%)attempts 17–17goals 2–0
- Tennyson – Carrick15:19
xG 0.58–0.67 (47%)attempts 13–17goals 0–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Kakko – Lafrenière12:51
xG 1.14–0.38 (75%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich9:47
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Di Giuseppe – Howden8:42
xG 0.57–0.57 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Lemieux – Rooney – Gauthier8:28
xG 0.26–0.45 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Trouba10:17
xG 1.00–0.23 (81%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Bitetto – Hajek15:26
xG 0.91–0.70 (56%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
- Smith – Fox3:00
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).