Thu, Mar 4, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Florida Panthers 5, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 217 | 213 | 18 | 538 |
| NSH | 010 | 215 | 210 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:29FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 9:01FLAMason MarchmentAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 0:59FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–0
- P2 12:23NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 18:44FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P2 19:34NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Mattias Ekholm · Deflected, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 9:07FLAAaron EkbladPPGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 12:40NSHColton SissonsAssists: Brad Richardson, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–3
- P3 18:47NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.28 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P2 6:46FLAJuho Lammikko: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:01FLAAlexander Wennberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:27NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:30NSHColton Sissons: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:25NSHMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:30NSHRoman Josi: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Vatrano15:41
xG 1.42–0.14 (91%)attempts 23–10goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Huberdeau – Wennberg10:47
xG 0.71–0.66 (52%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Acciari – Marchment – Luostarinen10:37
xG 0.37–0.78 (32%)attempts 12–15goals 1–2
- Hinostroza – Lammikko – Lomberg6:25
xG 0.01–0.48 (2%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad13:43
xG 1.04–0.34 (76%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Gudas – Forsling14:00
xG 0.91–0.40 (69%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Gudas – Weegar2:32
xG 0.03–0.03 (47%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson3:24
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Duchene – Jarnkrok – Grimaldi8:16
xG 0.47–0.25 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Richardson – Haula – Sissons7:18
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Granlund – Cousins – Grimaldi3:04
xG 0.04–0.06 (40%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Harpur5:45
xG 0.51–0.08 (86%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Josi – Ekholm13:06
xG 0.76–0.48 (61%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Harpur – Fabbro7:39
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).