Thu, Mar 4, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Winnipeg Jets 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 210 | 05 | 17 | 15 | 427 |
| MTL | 09 | 213 | 110 | 04 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:39WPGPaul StastnyAssists: Blake Wheeler, Neal Pionk · Slap, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 15:25WPGMathieu PerreaultUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 9:53MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Tomas Tatar, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 16:53MTLTyler ToffoliAssists: Nick Suzuki, Jonathan Drouin · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 3:39WPGPaul StastnyAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 18:36MTLCorey PerryAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–3
- OT 4:29WPGPierre-Luc DuboisGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 8:04WPGAndrew Copp: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:27MTLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:59MTLShea Weber: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stastny – Scheifele17:01
xG 0.89–0.32 (73%)attempts 13–18goals 2–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Perreault6:39
xG 0.60–0.04 (93%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Ehlers – Connor – Dubois12:11
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Appleton11:17
xG 0.35–0.71 (33%)attempts 5–22goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Pionk18:59
xG 1.19–0.42 (74%)attempts 20–29goals 2–0
- DeMelo – Beaulieu12:13
xG 0.37–0.10 (78%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Poolman – Morrissey18:28
xG 0.52–0.45 (54%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault12:10
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Perry – Byron – Evans7:02
xG 0.05–0.13 (30%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Drouin – Suzuki13:16
xG 0.51–0.61 (46%)attempts 11–7goals 1–2
- Armia – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi9:47
xG 0.20–0.89 (19%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Chiarot – Edmundson2:27
xG 0.03–0.03 (52%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Petry – Edmundson13:45
xG 0.24–0.37 (39%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Weber – Chiarot16:56
xG 0.42–0.62 (40%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).