Thu, Mar 4, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 05 | 19 | 28 | 322 |
| DAL | 06 | 09 | 29 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:11CBJBoone JennerAssists: Nick Foligno, David Savard · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P3 2:23CBJOliver BjorkstrandUnassisted · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–0
- P3 4:05CBJEric RobinsonGWGAssists: Boone Jenner, Gabriel Carlsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 7:35DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 10:48DALJason RobertsonAssists: Esa Lindell, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:34CBJCam Atkinson: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:42DALDenis Gurianov: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:02CBJSeth Jones: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:42DALAndrej Sekera: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Roslovic
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Bjorkstrand – Bemstrom7:30
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Robinson11:43
xG 0.52–0.45 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 2–1
- Domi – Stenlund – Texier8:29
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Roslovic – Laine12:11
xG 0.32–0.72 (31%)attempts 8–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski19:17
xG 0.96–0.39 (71%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Savard – Carlsson12:42
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 11–13goals 2–2
- Savard – Gavrikov2:18
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Cogliano – Faksa8:10
xG 0.52–0.16 (77%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Kiviranta2:40
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Robertson – Kiviranta6:41
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Dowling – Kero – Caamano4:10
xG 0.05–0.16 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen18:15
xG 0.77–0.45 (63%)attempts 25–13goals 1–1
- Klingberg – Lindell17:58
xG 0.89–0.76 (54%)attempts 16–20goals 1–0
- Sekera – Hanley8:22
xG 0.10–0.83 (11%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).