Sat, Mar 6, 2021·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Rangers 6, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 314 | 19 | 25 | 628 |
| NJD | 25 | 012 | 110 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:06NYRAdam FoxPPAssists: Alexandar Georgiev · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 7:15NYRRyan StromeAssists: Chris Kreider, Kaapo Kakko · Snap, 0.40 xG2–0
- P1 14:54NJDP.K. SubbanAssists: Pavel Zacha, Jesper Bratt · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P1 15:11NJDMikhail MaltsevAssists: Nathan Bastian, Yegor Sharangovich · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–2
- P1 17:06NYRKevin RooneyAssists: Filip Chytil, Julien Gauthier · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 1:05NYRLibor HajekGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, K'Andre Miller · Snap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 8:38NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Julien Gauthier · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 17:48NJDNathan BastianAssists: Travis Zajac, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.10 xG5–3
- P3 18:47NYRRyan StromeENAssists: Adam Fox · Snap, 0.63 xG6–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:33NJDSami Vatanen: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 1:29NJDDmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P2 7:25NJDTy Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:33NYRK'Andre Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:39NJDAndreas Johnsson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hughes won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRooney – Gauthier – Chytil8:31
xG 0.47–0.12 (80%)attempts 6–5goals 2–1
- Kreider – Strome – Kakko12:01
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Zibanejad – Buchnevich – Lafrenière8:35
xG 0.17–0.29 (38%)attempts 3–8goals 1–2
- Blackwell – Lemieux – Howden9:21
xG 0.14–0.76 (16%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren13:54
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Johnson – Hajek13:22
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
- Smith – Miller17:08
xG 0.96–0.94 (51%)attempts 15–19goals 2–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKuokkanen – Maltsev – Sharangovich2:56
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Johnsson – Hughes7:33
xG 0.20–0.04 (83%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Bastian – Maltsev – Sharangovich3:01
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Kuokkanen – Sharangovich – Hughes2:16
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Smith14:56
xG 0.76–0.40 (66%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Subban – Kulikov14:22
xG 0.55–0.33 (63%)attempts 15–5goals 2–1
- Vatanen – Butcher11:10
xG 0.35–0.95 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).