Sat, Mar 6, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Buffalo Sabres 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 17 | 05 | 110 | 222 |
| NYI | 011 | 49 | 19 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:33BUFJacob BrysonAssists: Brandon Montour, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 3:51NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Jordan Eberle, Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 5:16NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 8:45NYICal ClutterbuckGWGAssists: Matt Martin, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 15:29NYIScott MayfieldAssists: Casey Cizikas, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 0:52BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Victor Olofsson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 2:15NYIAnders LeeAssists: Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–5
Penalties (1)
- P2 18:45NYIScott Mayfield: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Reinhart – Olofsson13:28
xG 1.07–0.52 (68%)attempts 18–7goals 0–2
- Hall – Eichel – Cozens12:46
xG 0.65–0.60 (52%)attempts 16–9goals 1–2
- Sheahan – Skinner – Lazar12:50
xG 0.30–0.76 (28%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
- Okposo – Eakin – Rieder11:11
xG 0.36–1.14 (24%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Bryson17:18
xG 1.56–1.03 (60%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Irwin – Ristolainen17:34
xG 0.68–0.60 (53%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Miller – Dahlin14:42
xG 0.29–1.20 (19%)attempts 11–18goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Barzal13:53
xG 1.07–0.58 (65%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier13:46
xG 0.80–0.39 (67%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Pageau – Dal Colle – Wahlstrom10:34
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:21
xG 0.20–0.53 (28%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Mayfield17:33
xG 0.86–0.50 (63%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Pelech – Pulock16:58
xG 0.84–0.81 (51%)attempts 13–17goals 2–1
- Greene – Dobson15:12
xG 1.06–1.10 (49%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).