Fri, Mar 5, 2021·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
St. Louis Blues 3, Los Angeles Kings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 16 | 05 | 110 | 11 | 322 |
| LAK | 012 | 18 | 110 | 00 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:08STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 16:41LAKJeff CarterAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Tobias Bjornfot · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 0:37LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Anze Kopitar · Deflected, 0.28 xG1–2
- P3 19:16STLDavid PerronAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Mike Hoffman · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 1:30STLMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Torey Krug, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:43LAKMatt Luff: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 2:58STLKyle Clifford: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:03STLZachary Sanford: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:11LAKTobias Bjornfot: Interference2 min
- P2 18:48STLZachary Sanford: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:59STLJordan Kyrou: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:50LAKAdrian Kempe: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vilardi won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Hoffman – Schenn3:54
xG 0.33–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Sanford – Kyrou12:19
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Perron – Schenn – Walker6:20
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Clifford – MacEachern – Joshua6:18
xG 0.02–0.08 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Dunn15:11
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Faulk – Krug15:09
xG 0.55–0.54 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola11:28
xG 0.15–0.66 (19%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKempe – Moore – Kupari8:43
xG 0.40–0.10 (79%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Luff – Lizotte8:36
xG 0.09–0.08 (51%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Carter – Athanasiou – Vilardi12:20
xG 0.57–0.60 (49%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo10:31
xG 0.10–0.34 (22%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Walker11:47
xG 0.37–0.05 (88%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson17:21
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Roy – Bjornfot13:53
xG 0.85–0.88 (49%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).