Fri, Mar 5, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Vegas Golden Knights 5, San Jose Sharks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 26 | 112 | 18 | 11 | 527 |
| SJS | 09 | 211 | 28 | 01 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:48VGKReilly SmithAssists: William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 7:03VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 2:57VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Alec Martinez, Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–0
- P2 6:01SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Ryan Donato, Timo Meier · Snap, 0.01 xG3–1
- P2 12:43SJSMatt NietoAssists: Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 0:26VGKAlex TuchAssists: William Carrier · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 6:23SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Erik Karlsson, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 18:53SJSKevin LabancUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–4
- OT 1:25VGKMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:11SJSJohn Leonard: Holding2 min
- P1 7:57VGKKeegan Kolesar: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:23SJSLogan Couture: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:37VGKAlex Tuch: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:49VGKJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:22VGKShea Theodore: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:32SJSKurtis Gabriel: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:57SJSRudolfs Balcers: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:02SJSKurtis Gabriel: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:02VGKRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:09VGKWilliam Carrier: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Tuch – Roy – Glass7:49
xG 0.14–0.12 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson9:46
xG 0.33–0.43 (43%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Kolesar6:03
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Marchessault – Glass2:15
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Pietrangelo12:45
xG 0.60–0.29 (67%)attempts 16–7goals 3–0
- Hague – Whitecloud9:59
xG 0.11–0.24 (31%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Martinez – Theodore12:35
xG 0.19–0.53 (27%)attempts 8–9goals 1–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Donato – Leonard7:36
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Nieto – Gabriel – Kellman4:49
xG 0.11–0.01 (95%)attempts 1–4goals 1–1
- Meier – Balcers – Gambrell7:53
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Couture – Kane – Labanc10:53
xG 0.64–0.57 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Knyzhov11:31
xG 0.74–0.21 (78%)attempts 13–6goals 2–2
- Burns – Ferraro13:49
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Simek9:41
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).