Sat, Mar 6, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Florida Panthers 6, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 311 | 212 | 632 |
| NSH | 112 | 06 | 112 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:46NSHEeli TolvanenPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 19:47FLAAaron EkbladUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 1:15FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 11:17FLANoel AcciariGWGAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 18:46FLANoel AcciariAssists: Keith Yandle · Backhand, 0.22 xG4–1
- P3 0:19NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 14:56FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–2
- P3 16:58FLANoel AcciariPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Backhand, 0.13 xG6–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:39FLAGrigori Denisenko: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:12NSHAlexandre Carrier: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:16NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:00FLAFrank Vatrano: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:03NSHFilip Forsberg: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:09NSHNick Cousins: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:09NSHNick Cousins: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:09FLARadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestLammikko – Acciari – Lomberg8:29
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Huberdeau – Wennberg9:19
xG 0.23–0.09 (72%)attempts 5–9goals 2–0
- Marchment – Luostarinen – Denisenko11:28
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Vatrano11:36
xG 0.16–0.66 (19%)attempts 9–22goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Gudas7:39
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 6–10goals 2–0
- Yandle – Connauton4:55
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Gudas – Forsling8:24
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:57
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 22–8goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Cousins – Sissons8:12
xG 0.08–0.03 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Granlund – Grimaldi – Tolvanen9:38
xG 0.29–0.25 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Richardson – Haula – Olivier6:45
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Fabbro14:56
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Benning10:40
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Josi – Carrier17:51
xG 0.45–0.59 (43%)attempts 15–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).