Sat, Mar 6, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Columbus Blue Jackets 0, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 08 | 07 | 06 | 021 |
| DAL | 210 | 14 | 212 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24DALJason DickinsonGWGAssists: Andrej Sekera · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 3:09DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Jamie Benn · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 13:46DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Nick Caamano, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 9:17DALRoope HintzAssists: Joel Kiviranta, Joel Hanley · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–4
- P3 19:19DALRadek FaksaSHAssists: Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:24CBJEmil Bemstrom: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P1 10:35CBJSeth Jones: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:45CBJGabriel Carlsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:57DALEsa Lindell: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:58CBJRiley Nash: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:01DALJamie Benn: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:01CBJMax Domi: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:57CBJPatrik Laine: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:44DALTy Dellandrea: Interference2 min
- P3 17:50DALJason Robertson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Bjorkstrand – Bemstrom6:30
xG 0.15–0.04 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Robinson7:45
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Roslovic – Laine6:24
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Bjorkstrand – Roslovic – Laine3:19
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski16:29
xG 0.55–0.49 (53%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Savard – Carlsson11:58
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 6–11goals 0–2
- Del Zotto – Gavrikov11:27
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Benn – Gurianov8:33
xG 0.35–0.13 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Caamano – Dellandrea2:27
xG 0.20–0.03 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Hintz – Robertson – Kiviranta7:35
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Comeau – Faksa – Caamano2:59
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Hanley7:42
xG 0.37–0.02 (94%)attempts 10–2goals 2–0
- Klingberg – Lindell15:14
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Sekera – Oleksiak2:21
xG 0.08–0.05 (64%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).