Sat, Mar 6, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 5, Colorado Avalanche 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 112 | 16 | 27 | 12 | 527 |
| COL | 011 | 213 | 29 | 00 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:10ANARickard RakellAssists: Sam Steel · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 4:26ANATroy TerryAssists: Adam Henrique, Josh Mahura · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 12:06COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 17:36COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Nazem Kadri · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 6:03COLMikko RantanenAssists: Samuel Girard, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 6:27COLBrandon SaadAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 13:03ANATroy TerryAssists: Cam Fowler, Maxime Comtois · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 17:10ANAKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
- OT 1:59ANARyan GetzlafPPGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.17 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 9:42ANAIsac Lundeström: Holding2 min
- P2 17:28ANAJacob Larsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:55ANAJosh Manson: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:42COLAndre Burakovsky: High sticking2 min · PPG
- OT 0:51COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Megna won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Terry – Comtois12:40
xG 0.44–0.06 (88%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Grant – Rakell – Steel3:07
xG 0.13–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Rakell2:03
xG 0.07–0.03 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Grant – Rakell – Lundeström4:32
xG 0.03–0.02 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Hutton5:39
xG 0.11–0.03 (79%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Fowler4:06
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Manson – Mahura2:28
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBellemare – Sherwood – O'Connor8:38
xG 0.23–0.05 (83%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Megna – Jost2:36
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kadri – Saad – Burakovsky4:28
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 1–3goals 1–1
- Landeskog – Nichushkin – Rantanen4:58
xG 0.06–0.05 (52%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Timmins6:12
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Toews – MacDonald2:22
xG 0.14–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Toews – Renouf8:10
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).