Sun, Feb 21, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
New Jersey Devils 3, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 110 | 15 | 111 | 326 |
| WSH | 011 | 115 | 315 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:35NJDAndreas JohnssonPPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 3:55NJDJack HughesAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Kyle Palmieri · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 13:38WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 9:16WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Brenden Dillon, Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 11:53WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 16:56WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 19:48NJDNikita GusevAssists: Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:15WSHNick Jensen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:23NJDMiles Wood: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:45WSHGarnet Hathaway: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:13NJDSami Vatanen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:00NJDKyle Palmieri: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:05WSHZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
- P3 16:49NJDRyan Murray: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Zajac – Gusev – Maltsev9:57
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Johnsson – Hughes12:50
xG 0.74–0.88 (46%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod8:40
xG 0.10–0.40 (20%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Zacha – Bratt – Hischier9:55
xG 0.21–0.83 (20%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Smith14:26
xG 0.72–0.51 (59%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Severson2:26
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Subban – Murray12:25
xG 0.32–0.88 (27%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Backstrom – Panik8:15
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Sheary – Vrana9:43
xG 0.50–0.03 (94%)attempts 18–3goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway10:45
xG 0.89–0.44 (67%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Oshie – Eller – Panik3:36
xG 0.31–0.03 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Orlov16:45
xG 0.85–0.28 (75%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Chara – Jensen13:09
xG 0.77–0.36 (68%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Carlson – Dillon13:13
xG 0.42–0.69 (38%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).