Mon, Mar 8, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Ottawa Senators 2, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 16 | 111 | 011 | 228 |
| EDM | 112 | 216 | 09 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56OTTEvgenii DadonovAssists: Thomas Chabot, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 7:03EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 6:03EDMAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Mikko Koskinen · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 14:41EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Kyle Turris, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 17:57OTTTim StützleAssists: Thomas Chabot, Colin White · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:43EDMJujhar Khaira: Tripping2 min
- P1 1:43EDMJujhar Khaira: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:43OTTErik Gudbranson: Instigator2 min
- P1 1:43OTTErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:43OTTErik Gudbranson: Misconduct10 min
- P1 7:42OTTMike Reilly: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:16EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:08OTTNikita Zaitsev: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:24OTTRyan Dzingel: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:47EDMJujhar Khaira: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – White – Stützle5:39
xG 0.63–0.34 (65%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Watson – Peca – Dzingel2:42
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Paul – White2:48
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Norris – Batherson – Stützle3:29
xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Brannstrom9:56
xG 0.69–0.28 (71%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Brannstrom – Zub2:11
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev15:16
xG 0.52–0.99 (34%)attempts 17–26goals 2–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Yamamoto15:44
xG 1.57–0.74 (68%)attempts 30–14goals 1–0
- Ennis – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi10:37
xG 0.74–0.53 (58%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Turris – Shore – Khaira6:30
xG 0.33–0.17 (67%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Neal – Chiasson – Haas7:56
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nurse19:05
xG 1.59–1.09 (59%)attempts 29–21goals 2–2
- Russell – Larsson15:28
xG 0.77–0.31 (71%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
- Bear – Jones8:59
xG 0.25–0.60 (30%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).