Mon, Mar 8, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Montréal Canadiens 1, Vancouver Canucks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 012 | 09 | 01 | 0 | 130 |
| VAN | 010 | 06 | 111 | 02 | 1 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37MTLJeff PetryPPAssists: Tomas Tatar, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 19:19VANAdam GaudetteAssists: Bo Horvat, Quinn Hughes · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. VAN Brock Boeser stopped
- 2. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
- 3. VAN J.T. Miller stopped
- 4. MTL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 5. VAN Bo Horvat scored
- 6. MTL Tomas Tatar stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:11VANJake Virtanen: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 16:36MTLCorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:12MTLPaul Byron: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:35VANNils Hoglander: Interference2 min
- P3 10:24MTLNick Suzuki: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kotkaniemi won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault10:05
xG 0.68–0.12 (85%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Anderson – Kotkaniemi9:03
xG 0.60–0.25 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Perry – Byron – Evans6:22
xG 0.08–0.14 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Armia – Drouin – Suzuki10:28
xG 0.49–0.55 (47%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Chiarot14:53
xG 0.65–0.21 (76%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Petry – Edmundson16:43
xG 0.80–0.54 (60%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Edmundson2:07
xG 0.02–0.03 (33%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Gaudette – Hoglander4:37
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Sutter – Boeser – Michaelis2:25
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Beagle – Roussel – Hawryluk6:14
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Boeser2:15
xG 0.03–0.10 (25%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hughes13:02
xG 0.76–0.57 (57%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Hughes2:13
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Edler – Hughes2:03
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).