Mon, Mar 8, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vegas Golden Knights 0, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 05 | 014 | 07 | 026 |
| MIN | 110 | 05 | 17 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:51MINKevin FialaGWGAssists: Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P3 19:54MINJonas BrodinENAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Foligno · Other, 0.72 xG0–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:44MINMats Zuccarello: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:50MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:33MINRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:21VGKCody Glass: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:37VGKJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stephenson – Tuch11:22
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:19
xG 0.13–0.24 (36%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek8:04
xG 0.16–0.42 (27%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Glass7:58
xG 0.24–0.61 (28%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud14:48
xG 0.37–0.05 (88%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Theodore – Whitecloud2:00
xG 0.04–0.03 (57%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Holden – Coghlan8:46
xG 0.13–0.39 (26%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Rask – Fiala10:38
xG 0.96–0.18 (84%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Bjugstad – Kaprizov12:04
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek11:17
xG 0.07–0.09 (45%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Bonino – Rau – Sturm7:20
xG 0.03–0.05 (39%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba16:27
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon15:03
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Cole – Soucy14:09
xG 0.64–0.40 (61%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).