Tue, Mar 9, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
New Jersey Devils 4, Washington Capitals 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 16 | 316 | 00 | 431 |
| WSH | 111 | 313 | 05 | 11 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:22WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Justin Schultz, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 7:42WSHJakub VranaAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 10:36WSHDaniel SprongAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 12:44NJDJanne KuokkanenAssists: Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.22 xG1–3
- P2 15:03WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 5:47NJDMiles WoodAssists: Jesper Bratt, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 10:17NJDYegor SharangovichAssists: Janne Kuokkanen, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 12:20NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Ty Smith, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
- OT 1:30WSHJakub VranaGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:22NJDMiles Wood: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:09WSHDaniel Sprong: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:35NJDJanne Kuokkanen: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 5:44NJDP.K. Subban: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:44WSHLars Eller: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:22WSHGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:48WSHNick Jensen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Zacha – Hughes6:44
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Bratt – Hughes3:48
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Wood – Bratt – Maltsev2:56
xG 0.10–0.03 (76%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Zajac – Kuokkanen – Sharangovich10:43
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Kulikov14:03
xG 0.69–0.54 (56%)attempts 10–16goals 2–1
- Severson – Smith14:39
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Vatanen – Murray12:21
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Dowd – Hathaway8:03
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Vrana – Sprong7:35
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Eller – Panik – Sheary10:55
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 1–2
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom14:41
xG 0.50–0.57 (47%)attempts 18–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Dillon14:15
xG 0.71–0.53 (57%)attempts 17–11goals 1–2
- Chara – Jensen13:06
xG 0.12–0.23 (35%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Schultz – Orlov17:32
xG 0.57–0.74 (44%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).