Tue, Mar 9, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 013 | 115 | 235 |
| PIT | 116 | 210 | 11 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:16NYRJack JohnsonAssists: Julien Gauthier, Chris Kreider · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 18:54PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 2:40PITTeddy BluegerSHAssists: Brandon Tanev, Brian Dumoulin · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 19:40PITKasperi KapanenGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 3:18NYRRyan StromePPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 19:27PITSidney CrosbyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:20NYRBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P1 12:55PITAnthony Angello: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:55PITMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:11PITSidney Crosby: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Strome – Kakko10:17
xG 0.36–0.06 (85%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Buchnevich – Lafrenière11:49
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Rooney – Gauthier – Chytil9:52
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 11–7goals 0–2
- Blackwell – Di Giuseppe – Howden9:06
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller16:18
xG 0.94–0.22 (81%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren16:18
xG 0.49–0.43 (53%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Johnson – Smith14:02
xG 0.30–0.29 (50%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Jankowski – Angello5:28
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese8:47
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kapanen – Rodrigues14:03
xG 0.13–0.38 (26%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel14:59
xG 0.72–0.96 (43%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ceci12:48
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Matheson – Marino2:44
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Pettersson – Marino12:39
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).