Tue, Mar 9, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Florida Panthers 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 115 | 214 | 14 | 433 |
| CBJ | 016 | 19 | 115 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:59FLAJuho LammikkoAssists: MacKenzie Weegar · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 2:45FLAPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.23 xG2–0
- P2 5:45CBJMichael Del ZottoAssists: Eric Robinson, Alexandre Texier · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 18:12FLAOwen TippettPPGWGAssists: Gustav Forsling, Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 11:38CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Zach Werenski · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:37FLACarter VerhaegheENAssists: MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:00CBJDavid Savard: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:27CBJNick Foligno: Holding2 min
- P1 9:00FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:49FLACarter Verhaeghe: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:56CBJKevin Stenlund: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:22CBJRiley Nash: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:59FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Nash
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestLammikko – Acciari – Lomberg9:07
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Huberdeau – Wennberg7:41
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–2
- Vatrano – Tippett – Luostarinen8:22
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Marchment10:58
xG 0.63–0.65 (49%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Forsling15:51
xG 1.02–0.82 (55%)attempts 20–18goals 0–2
- Weegar – Ekblad14:50
xG 0.99–0.95 (51%)attempts 18–18goals 0–0
- Weegar – Nutivaara2:04
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Jenner10:02
xG 0.92–0.66 (58%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Nash – Bjorkstrand – Laine9:36
xG 0.33–0.21 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Domi – Roslovic – Bemstrom5:50
xG 0.25–0.32 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Stenlund – Texier – Robinson5:56
xG 0.19–0.65 (22%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gavrikov12:33
xG 0.96–0.71 (57%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Savard – Carlsson12:33
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Jones – Werenski16:43
xG 0.85–1.12 (43%)attempts 19–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).