Wed, Mar 10, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Ottawa Senators 1, Edmonton Oilers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 04 | 06 | 112 | 122 |
| EDM | 416 | 212 | 18 | 736 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:52EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Tyson Barrie · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 5:57EDMJujhar KhairaGWGAssists: Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
- P1 12:08EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Mike Smith · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–3
- P1 13:26EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse · Slap, 0.17 xG0–4
- P2 7:01EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–5
- P2 8:03EDMJames NealAssists: Alex Chiasson · Snap, 0.06 xG0–6
- P3 7:35EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.19 xG0–7
- P3 11:11OTTEvgenii DadonovAssists: Austin Watson, Mike Reilly · Snap, 0.20 xG1–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:09OTTAustin Watson: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 0:35OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P2 3:29OTTRyan Dzingel: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:48OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 15:42EDMJujhar Khaira: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk4:46
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Watson – Paul4:09
xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Dadonov – White – Stützle2:22
xG 0.09–0.18 (34%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Watson – Paul – Norris2:32
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Reilly8:11
xG 0.53–0.39 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Reilly – Zub4:40
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Brannstrom5:12
xG 0.06–0.35 (15%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Yamamoto11:36
xG 1.29–0.37 (78%)attempts 17–8goals 2–1
- Shore – Khaira – Russell11:45
xG 0.48–0.14 (78%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Ennis – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi13:01
xG 0.73–0.53 (58%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Neal – Chiasson – Haas10:16
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nurse16:15
xG 1.93–0.59 (77%)attempts 22–11goals 3–1
- Larsson – Lagesson19:06
xG 1.16–0.30 (79%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Russell – Bear13:19
xG 0.19–0.61 (23%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).