Wed, Mar 10, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Montréal Canadiens 5, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 116 | 212 | 217 | 545 |
| VAN | 04 | 113 | 07 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:34MTLJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 2:09MTLCorey PerryGWGAssists: Paul Byron, Jake Evans · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 4:54VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 14:11MTLShea WeberPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Josh Anderson · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 6:36MTLJeff PetryAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 13:49MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Joel Edmundson, Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.32 xG5–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:40MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Boarding2 min
- P1 9:22VANAlexander Edler: Interference2 min
- P1 15:02VANJ.T. Miller: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:02MTLBen Chiarot: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:47VANQuinn Hughes: Holding2 min
- P2 3:59MTLBrett Kulak: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:33VANJ.T. Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:08VANMarc Michaelis: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:27MTLPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:02VANQuinn Hughes: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Armia – Danault8:40
xG 0.68–0.04 (94%)attempts 18–2goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Gallagher – Kotkaniemi8:02
xG 0.59–0.21 (74%)attempts 18–5goals 2–0
- Perry – Byron – Evans7:34
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Suzuki10:28
xG 0.23–0.27 (45%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Edmundson2:27
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Romanov2:31
xG 0.54–0.07 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Petry – Edmundson9:49
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Sutter – Virtanen – Hoglander2:40
xG 0.09–0.12 (44%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Gaudette3:13
xG 0.03–0.08 (24%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Virtanen3:06
xG 0.07–0.16 (29%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Michaelis4:05
xG 0.04–0.14 (22%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Myers – Schmidt2:09
xG 0.05–0.14 (25%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Myers – Benn9:57
xG 0.25–0.35 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
- Edler – Schmidt10:22
xG 0.17–0.43 (28%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).