Wed, Mar 10, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 16 | 09 | 212 | 327 |
| MIN | 19 | 08 | 314 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19MINJoel Eriksson EkUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 1:42VGKDylan CoghlanAssists: Nicolas Roy · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 1:18MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Nick Bjugstad · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 5:54MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Jordan Greenway, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–3
- P3 7:41MINCarson SoucyGWGAssists: Nico Sturm, Kyle Rau · Slap, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 14:00VGKDylan CoghlanAssists: Alec Martinez, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 17:50VGKDylan CoghlanAssists: Shea Theodore, Mark Stone · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:59VGKNicolas Roy: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:18MINZach Parise: Holding2 min
- P3 0:53VGKNicolas Hague: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:40MINKirill Kaprizov: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:43VGKKeegan Kolesar: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:43MINCarson Soucy: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:13
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Tuch – Roy – Glass10:45
xG 0.54–0.72 (43%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson13:18
xG 0.20–0.75 (21%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
- Reaves – Nosek – Kolesar7:37
xG 0.05–0.74 (6%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hague – Whitecloud14:26
xG 0.26–0.29 (48%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- McNabb – Coghlan12:40
xG 0.53–0.73 (42%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Martinez – Theodore12:30
xG 0.26–1.26 (17%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek12:48
xG 0.68–0.09 (88%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Bonino – Rau – Sturm6:13
xG 0.83–0.33 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Parise – Rask – Fiala10:21
xG 0.47–0.35 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Bjugstad – Kaprizov9:49
xG 0.32–0.31 (50%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:03
xG 0.95–0.23 (80%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Brodin – Dumba18:02
xG 1.23–0.63 (66%)attempts 15–21goals 0–1
- Cole – Soucy11:55
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).