Wed, Mar 10, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
Los Angeles Kings 5, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 116 | 29 | 213 | 538 |
| ANA | 08 | 111 | 015 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46LAKAdrian KempePPUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 5:20LAKAnze KopitarPPGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Matt Roy · Slap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 5:39ANASam SteelAssists: Nicolas Deslauriers, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 17:55LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Trevor Moore, Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 1:27LAKAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Jeff Carter, Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–1
- P3 13:57LAKAlex IafalloUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:24ANAMaxime Comtois: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:10LAKAdrian Kempe: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:05ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:13LAKBlake Lizotte: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:30ANAJacob Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:24ANACam Fowler: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:05LAKTrevor Moore: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:01LAKAndreas Athanasiou: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Athanasiou – Vilardi9:24
xG 0.98–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Kempe – Moore – Lizotte5:12
xG 0.55–0.04 (94%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo10:12
xG 0.45–0.57 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Amadio – Wagner – Grundstrom5:14
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson14:25
xG 0.90–0.19 (83%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Maatta – Walker13:35
xG 1.10–0.49 (69%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Silfverberg – Zegras9:01
xG 0.81–0.41 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Lettieri5:00
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Steel2:43
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Rakell – Lundeström – Zegras2:13
xG 0.02–0.16 (13%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Hakanpää13:05
xG 0.78–0.54 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Hutton – Larsson15:36
xG 0.43–1.07 (29%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Mahura12:17
xG 0.68–1.36 (33%)attempts 12–14goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).