Thu, Mar 11, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New Jersey Devils 3, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 06 | 310 | 322 |
| NYI | 28 | 217 | 19 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:15NYIMatt MartinAssists: Scott Mayfield, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 9:54NYIAdam PelechAssists: Ryan Pulock, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 14:05NYINoah DobsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 17:13NYIJosh BaileyGWGAssists: Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P3 3:23NJDJanne KuokkanenAssists: P.K. Subban, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–4
- P3 4:03NJDMikhail MaltsevAssists: Sami Vatanen, Michael McLeod · Backhand, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 4:44NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Ryan Pulock · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 15:52NJDJack HughesAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Jesper Bratt · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:09NJDTy Smith: Interference2 min
- P2 14:05NJDMiles Wood: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 6:12NJDRyan Murray: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 9:56NYIMathew Barzal: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 17:31NJDKyle Palmieri: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Bratt – Hughes2:07
xG 0.09–0.04 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Wood – Bratt – Maltsev2:51
xG 0.03–0.02 (64%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod3:24
xG 0.02–0.18 (10%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Zacha – Bratt2:27
xG 0.02–0.18 (10%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Subban – Kulikov12:28
xG 0.91–1.11 (45%)attempts 16–15goals 1–2
- Vatanen – Murray13:23
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Severson – Smith16:43
xG 0.15–1.45 (9%)attempts 13–17goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Nelson – Beauvillier7:11
xG 0.88–0.28 (76%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Eberle – Dal Colle – Barzal2:33
xG 0.58–0.04 (93%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal3:35
xG 0.42–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas11:51
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock11:22
xG 1.77–0.13 (93%)attempts 22–6goals 2–0
- Leddy – Mayfield13:06
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Greene – Dobson13:37
xG 0.76–0.47 (62%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).