Thu, Mar 11, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 5, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 210 | 25 | 17 | 522 |
| PHI | 111 | 08 | 214 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:37WSHAlex OvechkinUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 11:14PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Kevin Hayes, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 13:10WSHConor ShearyAssists: Daniel Sprong · Snap, 0.24 xG2–1
- P2 6:58WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Jakub Vrana, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 17:33WSHNic DowdGWGAssists: Zdeno Chara, Garnet Hathaway · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–1
- P3 1:43PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Sean Couturier, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 10:45PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Kevin Hayes, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 19:32WSHNic DowdENAssists: Ilya Samsonov · Wrist, 0.46 xG5–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:31PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:31WSHBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:15WSHGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:15PHIAndy Andreoff: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:50PHITravis Konecny: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00WSHZdeno Chara: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:00PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:58PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:58WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:43WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Dowd – Hathaway8:53
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Kuznetsov – Vrana – Sprong10:47
xG 0.17–0.13 (55%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Panik – Kuznetsov – Sheary2:42
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Panik – Sheary2:29
xG 0.01–0.06 (11%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Jensen13:18
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
- Carlson – Dillon14:41
xG 0.37–0.22 (62%)attempts 9–16goals 2–0
- Schultz – Orlov14:52
xG 0.07–0.29 (18%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Farabee13:07
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Lindblom10:24
xG 0.15–0.22 (42%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Hayes – Laughton – Konecny11:49
xG 0.12–0.41 (23%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Andreoff – Aube-Kubel – Patrick5:28
xG 0.03–0.42 (7%)attempts 2–2goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Sanheim11:31
xG 0.23–0.05 (81%)attempts 14–1goals 0–0
- Hagg – Sanheim2:45
xG 0.01–0.02 (19%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Hagg8:33
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).