Thu, Mar 11, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Nashville Predators 1, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 015 | 06 | 112 | 133 |
| CAR | 36 | 112 | 18 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:06CARMorgan GeekiePPAssists: Jake Bean, Nino Niederreiter · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 11:11CARBrock McGinnGWGAssists: Warren Foegele · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 11:27CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 8:50CARMorgan GeekiePPAssists: Jake Bean, Brett Pesce · Deflected, 0.05 xG0–4
- P3 4:38CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Dougie Hamilton · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–5
- P3 15:28NSHNick CousinsAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.01 xG1–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:19NSHMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:50NSHNick Cousins: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:32CARDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
- P3 3:40NSHBen Harpur: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Trenin – Olivier9:29
xG 0.78–0.18 (81%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Granlund – Pitlick9:43
xG 0.79–0.36 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson13:33
xG 0.89–0.50 (64%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Cousins – Sissons – Tolvanen8:59
xG 0.07–0.33 (19%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Benning3:54
xG 0.98–0.11 (90%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Carrier12:56
xG 1.08–0.61 (64%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Benning5:34
xG 0.35–0.08 (82%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Staal – Fast – Svechnikov11:03
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Paquette – Lorentz – Geekie7:41
xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Aho – Necas13:25
xG 0.54–0.70 (44%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Foegele11:49
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFleury – Bean15:15
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Hamilton – Slavin17:22
xG 0.70–1.15 (38%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pesce16:31
xG 0.75–1.54 (33%)attempts 14–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).