Thu, Mar 11, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Florida Panthers 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 14 | 316 | 14 | 532 |
| CBJ | 07 | 215 | 210 | 00 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:00CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Max Domi, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 10:14CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Riley Nash, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 16:50FLAPatric HornqvistAssists: Gustav Forsling, Carter Verhaeghe · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 3:23CBJPatrik LainePPAssists: Zach Werenski, Cam Atkinson · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 4:43CBJMax DomiAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 6:34FLARyan LombergAssists: Noel Acciari, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 12:21FLAOwen TippettAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Mason Marchment · Snap, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 14:26FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.10 xG4–4
- OT 2:48FLAFrank VatranoGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad · Tip-in, 0.25 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:29FLAPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:04FLACarter Verhaeghe: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:08CBJSeth Jones: Interference2 min
- P3 1:27FLAAlexander Wennberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:20CBJGabriel Carlsson: Holding2 min
- P3 13:07CBJMichael Del Zotto: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Nash
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVatrano – Tippett – Luostarinen7:31
xG 0.50–0.19 (72%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Lammikko – Acciari – Lomberg5:08
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Verhaeghe – Tippett – Luostarinen2:58
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Barkov – Marchment2:01
xG 0.04–0.08 (30%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Nutivaara10:13
xG 0.82–0.08 (92%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Weegar – Ekblad17:43
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Gudas – Forsling15:22
xG 0.41–0.85 (33%)attempts 11–20goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Bjorkstrand – Laine7:49
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Domi – Texier – Bemstrom5:41
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Stenlund – Robinson4:37
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Bjorkstrand2:15
xG 0.17–0.03 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Kukan11:03
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Jones – Werenski15:25
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Savard – Carlsson13:35
xG 0.16–0.64 (20%)attempts 5–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).