Thu, Mar 11, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Winnipeg Jets 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 18 | 18 | 110 | 01 | 327 |
| TOR | 010 | 114 | 213 | 11 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:19WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 3:14TORMitch MarnerAssists: Auston Matthews, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 10:50WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 6:29TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 12:39TORIlya MikheyevAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Pierre Engvall · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 17:34WPGPaul StastnyAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Neal Pionk · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 0:59TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 13:48TORIlya Mikheyev: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:01WPGAndrew Copp: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:30TORZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Copp – Appleton9:46
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Perreault5:54
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Connor – Dubois13:16
xG 0.50–0.82 (38%)attempts 12–13goals 2–3
- Wheeler – Stastny – Scheifele16:59
xG 0.44–1.22 (27%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Forbort – Pionk18:19
xG 0.80–0.88 (48%)attempts 16–18goals 0–2
- DeMelo – Stanley10:30
xG 0.27–0.54 (33%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Poolman – Morrissey19:42
xG 0.38–1.65 (19%)attempts 11–31goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews14:13
xG 1.36–0.45 (75%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Thornton – Tavares – Nylander7:26
xG 0.71–0.31 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander5:27
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Engvall – Mikheyev5:36
xG 0.19–0.08 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly20:26
xG 1.57–0.54 (74%)attempts 28–16goals 2–0
- Muzzin – Holl19:43
xG 1.24–0.44 (74%)attempts 24–11goals 1–1
- Bogosian – Dermott9:49
xG 0.19–0.41 (31%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).