Fri, Mar 12, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Vegas Golden Knights 5, St. Louis Blues 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 211 | 112 | 112 | 15 | 540 |
| STL | 08 | 27 | 28 | 00 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:48VGKMark StoneAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Max Pacioretty · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 15:29VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Reilly Smith · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 5:14STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Justin Faulk, Zachary Sanford · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 10:12VGKTomas NosekAssists: Dylan Coghlan, Nicolas Roy · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 13:36STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Sammy Blais, Robert Bortuzzo · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 4:53STLZachary SanfordPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Jordan Kyrou · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 10:40STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Vladimir Tarasenko · Snap, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 11:27VGKAlec MartinezAssists: Tomas Nosek, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–4
- OT 2:38VGKReilly SmithPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Alec Martinez · Slap, 0.15 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:56STLRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:04STLRobert Bortuzzo: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:20VGKMark Stone: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:29VGKAlec Martinez: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:17STLOskar Sundqvist: Holding2 min
- P3 10:03VGKDylan Coghlan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 0:58STLTorey Krug: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestNosek – Tuch – Roy9:00
xG 1.09–0.22 (83%)attempts 15–4goals 2–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:39
xG 1.07–0.34 (76%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson11:43
xG 0.59–0.25 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Reaves – Nosek – Kolesar2:54
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Theodore16:14
xG 1.28–0.37 (78%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- McNabb – Coghlan11:38
xG 0.83–0.33 (72%)attempts 15–6goals 2–1
- Hague – Whitecloud14:51
xG 0.79–0.39 (67%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Clifford – MacEachern – Joshua6:18
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Perron – Hoffman – Schenn3:38
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford7:39
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Sanford – Blais4:07
xG 0.00–0.10 (5%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola11:57
xG 0.21–0.24 (46%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug14:59
xG 0.12–1.23 (9%)attempts 6–24goals 1–2
- Scandella – Dunn16:58
xG 0.64–2.05 (24%)attempts 11–23goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).