Fri, Mar 12, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Ottawa Senators 2, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 110 | 18 | 07 | 225 |
| EDM | 212 | 218 | 27 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:10EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Kailer Yamamoto · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 3:06OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Austin Watson · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 13:45EDMTyson BarrieAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 9:19OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Drake Batherson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 13:55EDMDarnell NurseGWGAssists: Patrick Russell · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 18:50EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.21 xG2–4
- P3 5:05EDMTyler EnnisAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–5
- P3 15:48EDMGaetan HaasAssists: Tyler Ennis, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:53OTTMike Reilly: Holding2 min
- P2 8:58EDMGaetan Haas: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:11OTTEvgenii Dadonov: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:06OTTTim Stützle: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:39EDMTyler Ennis: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:33OTTRyan Dzingel: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Tierney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Tierney – Stützle2:30
xG 0.21–0.03 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Watson – Dzingel – Paul2:07
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Dzingel – Paul – Batherson2:10
xG 0.11–0.15 (44%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk2:39
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Zub11:57
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Reilly – Brown3:44
xG 0.23–0.09 (73%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Wolanin10:50
xG 0.54–1.08 (33%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Yamamoto14:18
xG 1.09–0.56 (66%)attempts 15–16goals 2–1
- Ennis – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi10:39
xG 0.84–0.50 (63%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Shore – Khaira – Russell10:34
xG 0.63–0.55 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Neal – Chiasson – Haas8:33
xG 0.05–0.40 (11%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBear – Jones13:07
xG 0.63–0.29 (69%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nurse15:58
xG 0.99–0.65 (60%)attempts 19–16goals 2–1
- Larsson – Lagesson15:50
xG 1.09–0.99 (53%)attempts 14–25goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).