Sat, Mar 13, 2021·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 3, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 113 | 09 | 27 | 329 |
| NJD | 16 | 118 | 04 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:37NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Ty Smith, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 17:58NYIOliver WahlstromUnassisted · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 1:04NJDJanne KuokkanenAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Travis Zajac · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 1:59NYIKieffer BellowsAssists: Mathew Barzal, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 5:10NYIKieffer BellowsGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:48NJDMikhail Maltsev: Interference2 min
- P1 9:36NYIAndy Greene: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:55NJDJesper Bratt: Holding2 min
- P2 8:28NYIAdam Pelech: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:18NJDP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P2 15:38NJDAndreas Johnsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:24NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Barzal – Bellows10:36
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Pageau – Dal Colle – Wahlstrom3:29
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:21
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier5:08
xG 0.09–0.54 (14%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock9:01
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
- Pelech – Dobson2:59
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Greene – Pelech2:16
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Kuokkanen – Sharangovich11:32
xG 1.21–0.59 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Johnsson – Bratt – Hughes9:22
xG 0.31–0.06 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Zacha – Maltsev6:11
xG 0.08–0.17 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod6:10
xG 0.15–0.32 (33%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Smith13:07
xG 1.04–0.79 (57%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Subban – Kulikov14:26
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Murray10:30
xG 0.08–0.31 (21%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).