Sat, Mar 13, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 29 | 27 | 17 | 523 |
| PHI | 08 | 215 | 29 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:40WSHDaniel SprongAssists: Jakub Vrana, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 13:21WSHCarl HagelinAssists: Nick Jensen, Garnet Hathaway · Backhand, 0.29 xG2–0
- P2 2:36PHIJames van RiemsdykUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 3:05WSHNick JensenAssists: Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 5:47PHINolan PatrickAssists: Jakub Voracek, Travis Sanheim · Slap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 13:10WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 4:25WSHNic DowdGWGAssists: Garnet Hathaway, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG5–2
- P3 13:07PHIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–3
- P3 17:03PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek, Travis Sanheim · Slap, 0.04 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:14WSHJustin Schultz: Interference2 min
- P2 10:23WSHNic Dowd: Holding2 min
- P2 11:48PHITravis Sanheim: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:01PHIOskar Lindblom: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:05WSHNick Jensen: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Dowd – Hathaway8:49
xG 0.66–0.16 (80%)attempts 9–6goals 3–0
- Kuznetsov – Sheary – Vrana2:38
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Vrana – Sprong6:01
xG 0.32–0.51 (39%)attempts 7–10goals 1–2
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom13:03
xG 0.08–0.36 (19%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carlson – Dillon14:54
xG 0.57–0.56 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Chara – Jensen14:18
xG 0.25–0.39 (40%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
- Schultz – Orlov15:09
xG 0.25–0.77 (25%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Couturier – Farabee12:30
xG 0.61–0.11 (84%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Patrick5:13
xG 0.24–0.08 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Andreoff – Aube-Kubel – Lindblom2:33
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Laughton – Aube-Kubel – Lindblom2:23
xG 0.02–0.04 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov12:45
xG 0.61–0.10 (85%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Myers15:05
xG 0.78–0.52 (60%)attempts 20–9goals 1–2
- Sanheim – Provorov2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).