Sat, Mar 13, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 014 | 110 | 18 | 232 |
| FLA | 06 | 313 | 116 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:28CHIBrandon HagelAssists: Dominik Kubalik, David Kampf · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 7:46FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Anthony Duclair, MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 11:00FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 12:19FLAFrank VatranoGWGAssists: Owen Tippett, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 10:01FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Anthony Duclair, Carter Verhaeghe · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 18:28CHIAdam BoqvistAssists: Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:41CHIDavid Kampf: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:24FLAAnton Stralman: Interference2 min
- P1 14:47FLAAnthony Duclair: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:45FLAMason Marchment: Elbowing2 min
- P2 14:39CHIMattias Janmark: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:30FLACarter Verhaeghe: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKubalik – Hagel – Kampf6:17
xG 0.99–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Kane – Wallmark – DeBrincat2:36
xG 0.34–0.25 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Kubalik – Hagel – Suter2:26
xG 0.03–0.06 (31%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Highmore – Hagel – Kampf2:32
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Mitchell12:26
xG 1.19–0.61 (66%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Keith – Murphy3:53
xG 0.10–0.04 (73%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- de Haan – Murphy13:08
xG 0.05–0.82 (6%)attempts 3–13goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov8:15
xG 1.66–0.11 (94%)attempts 17–2goals 3–0
- Lammikko – Acciari – Marchment4:41
xG 0.46–0.15 (76%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Marchment5:45
xG 0.17–0.04 (79%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Huberdeau – Wennberg10:45
xG 0.42–0.40 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad12:26
xG 1.47–0.76 (66%)attempts 19–8goals 2–0
- Gudas – Forsling13:28
xG 0.77–0.30 (72%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Yandle – Stralman16:22
xG 0.84–1.19 (42%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).