Sat, Mar 13, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Dallas Stars 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 111 | 18 | 01 | 330 |
| CBJ | 17 | 25 | 010 | 14 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:07CBJMax DomiAssists: Jack Roslovic, Emil Bemstrom · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 16:44DALAndrew CoglianoAssists: Radek Faksa, Jamie Oleksiak · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 7:17DALAndrej SekeraAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Blake Comeau · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 16:45CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Max Domi, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 17:45CBJNick FolignoAssists: Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 5:08DALDenis GurianovAssists: Jason Dickinson, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- OT 4:55CBJZach WerenskiGWGAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–4
Penalties (1)
- P3 9:02DALJoel Hanley: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Robertson – Kiviranta9:46
xG 0.39–0.12 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Benn – Dickinson – Gurianov13:01
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Caamano – Gardner – L'Esperance7:35
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa12:56
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell19:21
xG 0.82–0.47 (64%)attempts 24–12goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Hanley2:35
xG 0.18–0.06 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen20:03
xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Bemstrom – Robinson5:59
xG 0.58–0.01 (99%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Domi – Roslovic – Bemstrom4:34
xG 0.22–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Foligno – Stenlund – Texier6:02
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Domi – Roslovic6:56
xG 0.44–0.51 (47%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Gavrikov19:50
xG 0.85–0.78 (52%)attempts 12–29goals 2–0
- Jones – Werenski21:56
xG 0.45–0.44 (51%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1
- Del Zotto – Kukan14:22
xG 0.30–0.65 (32%)attempts 9–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).