Sat, Mar 13, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Vegas Golden Knights 5, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 19 | 05 | 412 | 526 |
| STL | 09 | 011 | 115 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 1:32VGKMark StoneGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, Shea Theodore · Slap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 4:39STLSammy BlaisAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 7:25VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 12:09VGKMark StoneAssists: Max Pacioretty, Chandler Stephenson · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 19:30VGKAlex TuchENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.67 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:32VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:32STLDakota Joshua: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:13STLRobert Bortuzzo: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:18STLVille Husso: Delaying game2 min
- P2 14:33VGKAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:37VGKZach Whitecloud: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:23VGKPatrick Brown: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:30VGKChandler Stephenson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestNosek – Tuch – Roy11:21
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson10:41
xG 0.59–0.29 (67%)attempts 16–5goals 3–1
- Reaves – Brown – Kolesar6:55
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:28
xG 0.19–0.52 (27%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Martinez – Theodore15:36
xG 0.35–0.36 (49%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1
- Hague – Whitecloud13:06
xG 0.49–0.53 (48%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- McNabb – Coghlan14:33
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Tarasenko – Blais9:54
xG 0.88–0.30 (75%)attempts 8–12goals 1–2
- Clifford – MacEachern – Joshua5:18
xG 0.00–0.08 (1%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Sundqvist – Kyrou9:54
xG 0.33–0.47 (41%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford10:49
xG 0.18–0.43 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Dunn11:43
xG 0.83–0.28 (75%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola9:23
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug15:54
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).