Sat, Mar 13, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Winnipeg Jets 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 213 | 312 | 532 |
| TOR | 07 | 29 | 06 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:41WPGMason AppletonAssists: Adam Lowry, Andrew Copp · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 5:03TORJake MuzzinSHAssists: Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 7:12TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Joe Thornton, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 16:34WPGPaul StastnyAssists: Mark Scheifele, Logan Stanley · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 7:39WPGAdam LowryGWGAssists: Mason Appleton, Dylan DeMelo · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 14:34WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 16:32WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:00WPGMark Scheifele: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:02TORZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:51WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:28TORJoe Thornton: Interference2 min
- P2 17:43WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min
- P3 12:50TORMorgan Rielly: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:46TORZach Hyman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:46TORTravis Boyd: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stastny – Scheifele13:27
xG 0.97–0.18 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 1–1
- Thompson – Lewis – Perreault5:17
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Appleton11:51
xG 0.52–0.40 (57%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Ehlers – Connor – Dubois11:40
xG 0.35–0.82 (30%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Pionk16:22
xG 0.94–0.48 (66%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Poolman – Morrissey10:36
xG 0.56–0.11 (84%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Poolman – Stanley4:44
xG 0.39–0.28 (59%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Engvall – Mikheyev8:30
xG 0.52–0.37 (58%)attempts 8–4goals 0–2
- Thornton – Tavares – Nylander9:40
xG 0.34–0.42 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Spezza – Boyd – Vesey4:32
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews14:22
xG 0.25–1.01 (20%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Muzzin – Holl15:33
xG 0.70–0.70 (50%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Dermott9:04
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
- Brodie – Rielly15:26
xG 0.31–0.75 (29%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).