Sat, Mar 13, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
San Jose Sharks 3, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 114 | 111 | 333 |
| ANA | 07 | 19 | 011 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:16SJSEvander KaneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 5:38ANAMax JonesAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Isac Lundeström · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 6:33SJSKevin LabancGWGAssists: Tomas Hertl, Mario Ferraro · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 2:07SJSDylan GambrellAssists: Ryan Donato, John Leonard · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:44ANAJani Hakanpää: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:14SJSPatrick Marleau: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:51ANAJosh Mahura: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:11ANAIsac Lundeström: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:55SJSKurtis Gabriel: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:14ANACam Fowler: Holding2 min
- P3 10:07SJSNikolai Knyzhov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Gambrell – Leonard5:24
xG 0.35–0.06 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
- Marleau – Gabriel – Handemark5:17
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Hertl – Labanc2:16
xG 0.24–0.18 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Nieto – Hertl – Meier9:48
xG 0.58–0.56 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ferraro14:02
xG 0.71–0.31 (70%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Simek10:11
xG 0.51–0.31 (63%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Knyzhov15:11
xG 0.33–1.09 (23%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – Terry – Lundeström2:42
xG 0.42–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Rakell5:19
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Comtois3:50
xG 0.12–0.02 (83%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Terry – Comtois6:23
xG 0.28–0.38 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Mahura10:17
xG 0.70–0.38 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Shattenkirk – Fowler3:43
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Hutton – Larsson11:43
xG 0.41–0.45 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).