Sun, Mar 14, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 09 | 08 | 111 | 128 |
| COL | 120 | 214 | 17 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:05COLNazem KadriAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Dan Renouf · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 14:05COLAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Brandon Saad · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 17:09COLJoonas DonskoiAssists: Dan Renouf, Valeri Nichushkin · Tip-in, 0.22 xG0–3
- P3 6:07LAKKurtis MacDermidAssists: Anze Kopitar, Alex Iafallo · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 16:41COLNathan MacKinnonENAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.70 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:08LAKAdrian Kempe: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:36COLLogan O'Connor: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:34COLAndre Burakovsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:28COLNazem Kadri: Interference2 min
- P3 9:33COLRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:50COLNazem Kadri: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Carter – Athanasiou – Vilardi7:12
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Wagner – Moore – Lizotte4:32
xG 0.03–0.13 (21%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Iafallo10:06
xG 0.19–0.47 (28%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
- Amadio – Grundstrom – Luff9:04
xG 0.18–0.64 (22%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Doughty – Anderson17:36
xG 0.36–0.76 (32%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
- Roy – Bjornfot13:16
xG 0.32–1.01 (24%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Bellemare – O'Connor5:58
xG 0.83–0.19 (81%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:39
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Donskoi – Nichushkin – Jost7:21
xG 0.29–0.10 (73%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Kadri – Saad – Burakovsky10:09
xG 0.46–0.45 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Toews10:49
xG 1.00–0.12 (89%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Girard – MacDonald9:46
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Pateryn – Renouf10:21
xG 0.68–0.41 (63%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).