Tue, Apr 27, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Islanders 0, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 05 | 06 | 018 |
| WSH | 110 | 013 | 010 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:29WSHDaniel SprongGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:50NYIRyan Pulock: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:34NYIBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:20NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:20WSHZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:36WSHDaniel Sprong: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:50WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:35NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:35WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:22WSHAnthony Mantha: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:23
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Bailey – Eberle – Barzal10:16
xG 0.54–0.63 (46%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Pageau – Beauvillier – Wahlstrom7:20
xG 0.04–0.29 (12%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Nelson10:49
xG 0.15–1.20 (11%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pelech – Pulock14:41
xG 0.32–0.82 (28%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
- Coburn – Greene12:16
xG 0.43–1.14 (28%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
- Leddy – Mayfield14:10
xG 0.09–0.89 (9%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Raffl – Sheary12:39
xG 1.24–0.34 (78%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway10:13
xG 0.95–0.10 (91%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Sprong9:58
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Mantha9:35
xG 0.53–0.28 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov15:12
xG 1.53–0.24 (87%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Dillon – van Riemsdyk14:16
xG 0.79–0.23 (78%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Chara – Jensen13:58
xG 0.67–0.44 (60%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).