Mon, Mar 15, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Florida Panthers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 18 | 28 | 013 | 329 |
| FLA | 113 | 210 | 313 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:38CHIPatrick KaneAssists: David Kampf · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 18:15FLAOwen TippettPPAssists: Gustav Forsling, Alexander Wennberg · Slap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 10:19CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Mattias Janmark, Calvin de Haan · Slap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 13:02CHIBrandon HagelAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 14:58FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 16:00FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 13:26FLAAleksander BarkovSHGWGAssists: Noel Acciari, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–4
- P3 18:16FLACarter VerhaegheENAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–5
- P3 19:04FLAAlexander WennbergENAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.64 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:18FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:05CHINikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P1 12:05FLAMason Marchment: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 14:20FLAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:23CHIDuncan Keith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:02CHIAlex DeBrincat: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:22CHIConnor Murphy: Interference2 min
- P3 10:29FLARadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P3 13:11FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Suter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKubalik – Hagel – Suter10:52
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Carpenter – Wallmark – Highmore6:06
xG 0.03–0.05 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Janmark – Kurashev6:34
xG 0.35–0.47 (42%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Kampf9:27
xG 0.30–0.61 (33%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Zadorov2:17
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- de Haan – Boqvist6:12
xG 0.19–0.13 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- de Haan – Murphy3:52
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestLammikko – Acciari – Marchment4:27
xG 0.49–0.12 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Marchment4:56
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov4:21
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Hornqvist – Huberdeau – Wennberg7:58
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad12:06
xG 0.65–0.14 (83%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Yandle – Stralman9:17
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Gudas – Forsling13:29
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).