Mon, Mar 15, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Vancouver Canucks 3, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 29 | 07 | 011 | 11 | 328 |
| OTT | 018 | 111 | 117 | 00 | 246 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:14VANJayce HawrylukAssists: Brandon Sutter, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 18:49VANTanner PearsonUnassisted · Snap, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 3:52OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Tim Stützle, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 17:50OTTColin WhiteAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Snap, 0.27 xG2–2
- OT 1:40VANJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:17VANJayce Hawryluk: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:13VANAdam Gaudette: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:46VANTravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:12VANBo Horvat: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:47OTTMike Reilly: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSutter – Hawryluk – Michaelis5:05
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Horvat – Boeser – Hoglander6:05
xG 0.45–0.24 (66%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Miller – Gaudette – MacEwen2:35
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Sutter – Pearson – Virtanen3:21
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Benn13:32
xG 1.06–0.73 (59%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Hamonic – Hughes14:49
xG 0.41–0.53 (44%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Edler – Schmidt15:05
xG 0.74–1.64 (31%)attempts 14–27goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Tkachuk – Stützle6:18
xG 0.70–0.16 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Brown – White3:26
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Brown – Norris – Tkachuk3:50
xG 0.32–0.19 (62%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Watson – Dzingel – Bishop5:23
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev16:36
xG 1.14–0.47 (71%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Reilly – Zub16:30
xG 0.63–0.93 (40%)attempts 19–19goals 1–1
- Gudbranson – Wolanin6:47
xG 0.26–0.97 (21%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).