Mon, Mar 15, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 3, Calgary Flames 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 04 | 213 | 114 | 331 |
| CGY | 05 | 313 | 19 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:25CGYDillon DubeAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 8:57CGYElias LindholmAssists: Oliver Kylington, Dillon Dube · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 9:49EDMAdam LarssonAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 13:45CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Milan Lucic, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 17:07EDMJosh ArchibaldAssists: Devin Shore, Ethan Bear · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 5:25EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 6:32CGYNoah HanifinGWGAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:35CGYBrett Ritchie: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:35EDMJujhar Khaira: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:48EDMAlex Chiasson: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:41CGYMikael Backlund: Interference2 min
- P3 2:45EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P3 11:17EDMKailer Yamamoto: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Draisaitl – Yamamoto6:48
xG 0.76–0.50 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Ennis – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi3:52
xG 0.24–0.02 (93%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Archibald – Shore – Khaira2:17
xG 0.13–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Archibald – Shore – Haas4:19
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Bear7:26
xG 0.33–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Russell – Larsson5:37
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Russell – Nurse4:44
xG 0.18–0.00 (99%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Tkachuk – Dube9:58
xG 0.82–0.18 (82%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Lucic – Backlund – Mangiapane13:04
xG 0.56–0.27 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Ritchie – Monahan11:13
xG 0.61–0.63 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Leivo – Bennett – Ryan7:48
xG 0.44–0.77 (36%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin18:05
xG 0.86–0.28 (75%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Giordano – Tanev2:48
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Kylington – Välimäki9:10
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).