Tue, Mar 16, 2021·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 2, New Jersey Devils 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 012 | 212 | 011 | 235 |
| NJD | 15 | 115 | 17 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:40NJDYegor SharangovichAssists: Damon Severson, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 6:13BUFTobias RiederAssists: Brandon Montour, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 7:10BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 10:39NJDSami VatanenAssists: Janne Kuokkanen, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 4:52NJDMiles WoodPPGWGAssists: Jesper Bratt, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:30BUFCody Eakin: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:15NJDDmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P2 3:51NJDSami Vatanen: Interference2 min
- P2 11:05BUFJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:05NJDNathan Bastian: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:37BUFColin Miller: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:33BUFBrandon Davidson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Sheahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Lazar – Mittelstadt7:52
xG 0.52–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Okposo – Skinner – Mittelstadt2:11
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Reinhart – Thompson2:30
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Okposo – Eakin – Olofsson7:50
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Montour – Jokiharju11:25
xG 0.98–1.02 (49%)attempts 13–9goals 2–1
- Davidson – Ristolainen10:48
xG 0.83–0.87 (49%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Miller – Dahlin12:32
xG 0.40–0.76 (35%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBratt – Bastian – Hughes5:13
xG 0.93–0.23 (80%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Zajac – Kuokkanen – Sharangovich9:09
xG 0.84–0.37 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Wood – Zacha10:29
xG 0.96–0.92 (51%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Gusev – Bastian – Maltsev2:00
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Kulikov13:33
xG 1.66–0.62 (73%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Vatanen – Murray11:56
xG 0.42–0.55 (43%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Severson – Smith14:09
xG 0.81–1.06 (43%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).