Tue, Mar 16, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Boston Bruins 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 115 | 013 | 15 | 233 |
| PIT | 115 | 09 | 011 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:20BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Matt Grzelcyk · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 15:22PITBrandon TanevAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P3 7:07BOSTrent FredericGWGAssists: Jakub Zboril, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:39BOSDavid Pastrnak: Boarding2 min
- P1 1:26PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:13BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:34BOSPatrice Bergeron: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 1:36PITAnthony Angello: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:13PITMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min
- P2 12:57PITBrandon Tanev: Boarding5 min
- P2 12:57PITBrandon Tanev: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 0:39BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Frederic – Kuhlman6:44
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Coyle – Ritchie – Steen3:38
xG 0.44–0.31 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Krejci – DeBrusk – Steen3:54
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:43
xG 0.62–0.60 (51%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy10:39
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Zboril – McAvoy5:27
xG 0.23–0.14 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Kampfer – Grzelcyk2:03
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel13:39
xG 0.65–0.54 (55%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Kapanen – Rodrigues – Tanev4:08
xG 0.52–0.42 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Kapanen – Rodrigues – Aston-Reese3:26
xG 0.11–0.04 (75%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Lafferty – Angello2:47
xG 0.32–0.28 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Pettersson8:26
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Letang – Matheson6:55
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Ceci2:01
xG 0.02–0.05 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).